At the start of this mayoral campaign, few predicted Rob Ford would be much of a threat to the other front runners. And yet here he is, with more than twice as much support as his nearest competitor and showing few signs of slowing down. So as we were going through the different articles about Rob Ford in class, one question kept popping up in my mind: how on earth did this happen?
So I looked more closely at the developments of the past few months and realized that this poll isn't as surprising as it should seem. Everyone involved in this election has contributed to this result in one way or another. Here's a bit of a recap, starting with a look at the main candidates.
Deputy Mayor Joe Pantalone is as close to being the incumbent as you can be without actually being it. So considering that polls show David Miller would win the race if he had entered it, one would think that Pantalone would be a force to be reckoned with in this election. But Pantalone's campaign seems to have had an impact as small as the man himself. He's done nothing to vault himself into the forefront of the debate and has been far too shy when it comes to taking credit for being such a key member of Mayor Miller's team. Most curious of all was the decision (whether it was Miller's or Team Pantalone's) to hold back the current mayor's public endorsement until Joe was already out of the race.
George Smitherman, the man who has all the experience in the world, albeit a questionable track record in terms of success, simply seems to have lost his way. Anointed the front-runner from the get go, this election was his to lose and it looks like he's accomplished just that. It seems clear that the Smitherman camp underestimated Ford. Or maybe Smitherman just never had what it takes to begin with. Either way, he has been forced to play catch-up and to do so, he's adopted a strategy and message that at times makes him look like Rob Ford-lite. It's almost impossible to see how this could work for Smitherman. Get used to the desperate, "I'm the only one who can stop Rob Ford" speech, because it may be the only shot Smitherman has left.
Rocci Rossi is employing a similar strategy, although he was more right-leaning to begin with. But where Rossi really dropped the (bocce) ball, was when he decided to style himself as a wise-guy/Goodfella with the guts to not only make big promises, but to deliver on them. Kind of like promising to extend the Allen Expressway in the form of an underground tunnel. In spite of the fact that nobody seems to want this and that it would in all likelihood be way too expensive. As writer John Lorinc noted, these boneheaded moves officially turned the once serious candidate into a fringe option.
With fellow fringe candidate Sarah Thomson now out of the picture, that leaves Rob Ford. The outburst prone councillor's campaign thus far has been nothing short of incredible. It has been surprisingly disciplined and on message. Ford took control of the narrative early and now everyone is talking about cleaning up city hall and cutting costs. By exaggerating the city's problems, he's brought the fight down to a level where it seems he can be the only victor.
Throughout all this Toronto's mainstream media has done little but help Ford with this tactic. The Toronto Sun has been, well, The Sun. But even The Star, seemingly hell-bent on ensuring Ford doesn't win, has been its own worst enemy at times. All the Ford slamming appears to have done little but give the man more publicity and help get his fundamental message out. As one article we read in class pointed out, the media has focused too much on Ford's personality and not nearly enough on his policy. Such as his transit plan, which relies on $3.7 billion from the provincial government that he simply won't get. Or his fiscal plan that has been labeled as pure fantasy that even the most naive voters are unlikely to buy.
And so we are where we are, with some idea of how we got here. But the real question is, where is this thing heading? A lot can happen in two weeks but one thing is for sure: voters in this city are being tested and receiving little help from those who are supposed to inform and inspire us. So I suggest we study hard until October 25th. The short-term future of Toronto depends on it.
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